If you asked me a few years ago, I would have said you absolutely can’t time the stock market. The 2008 crash hurt enough to make me review my convictions a little. I still believe that accurate market timing is somewhere between difficult and impossible. Trying to analyze stock charts to figure out what will happen in the short term is mostly a crap shoot. The way to win in the stock market is to buy value stocks, especially when everyone else is selling.

I do, however, now believe that there is a place for market timing in deciding when to be in the stock market, in the first place. I think there are some trends that have repeatedly predicted poor stock performance. There are some super smart people that have analyzed these trends over at the Motley Fool message boards. They’ve come up with many indicators that supposedly tell you when to get in and out of the stock market, but my favorite is the 99 day rule ¹.

The basic premise of the 99 day rule is that when the S&P 500 Index stops making new highs, investors get pessimistic and stocks fall. When it starts making new highs again, optimism takes over and bull markets start. The 99 day rule has 2 parts and coincidentally uses 99 days as the cut-off for both parts. It looks at whether a new high has been made recently. It defines “high” as a 99-day high. It defines “recently” as 99 days. So, it looks for a new 99-day high within the last 99 days. The number is arbitrary. Hop over the the Motley Fool boards to see how the dates have been tuned and pick different ones, if you like.

I like this rule, because it’s simple, easy to calculate and doesn’t have many “signals”, so you’re not constantly buying and selling. Of course, it’s not perfect, but it would have gotten you out of most of the major bear markets.

Here is how the rule has done over time:

Period        S&P 500   Switching   Improvement 
---------     -------   ---------   -----------
1930-1935     -12.2%       4.3%       16.4% 
1935-1940      10.3%      16.2%        6.0% 
1940-1945       7.4%       5.6%       -1.8% 
1945-1950      10.2%       7.4%       -2.8% 
1950-1955      23.6%      22.5%       -1.1% 
1955-1960      15.2%      13.8%       -1.4% 
1960-1965      10.7%      11.7%        1.0% 
1965-1970       5.0%       7.1%        2.2% 
1970-1975      -2.4%       6.8%        9.2% 
1975-1980      14.8%      12.0%       -2.8% 
1980-1985      14.8%      20.1%        5.2% 
1985-1990      20.4%      18.8%       -1.7% 
1990-1995       8.7%       6.7%       -2.0% 
1995-2000      28.6%      27.9%       -0.7% 
2000-2005      -2.3%       4.3%        6.6% 
2005-early2008  2.0%       4.5%        2.5%

You may have gotten to this point and are now wondering why it’s worth following this rule. In at least 3 of the past 5 periods, this signal would have lost money versus staying in the market. That is true. The key is to understand that there is no free lunch. Any rule that tries to get you out of major bear markets will be imperfect and will often leave you with less money than if you had chosen to act on a different date (or not act at all). The overall goal is not to increase your returns, but to decrease your risk without sacrificing your returns. This signal does that. Overall, it does actually increase your returns by about 2% annually since 1930.

The other nice feature is that it doesn’t have a “slam-dunk” feel to it. My experience is that things that work in the stock market have to have a little of a “gut wrenching” feel to them. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. This rule feels correct, improves returns over the long run, is backtested well, but does so at the risk of some lower performing years. That feels a little gut-wrenching to me.

Here is the author’s (mungofitch) description:

By using the rule that I described above, you would have had a total return of 11.80%, with a total risk of 6.71%. So, you would have had 2.3% per year higher returns on average, while experiencing only about 56.9% of the risk. Higher returns, lower risk. That sounds good, right?

But, is this one of those iffy timing systems that really only works because it managed to avoid the crash of 1987 of something? No, actually it has you in the market in the 1987 crash: it’s not perfect. But does it really add value on average through the years? Not always, but pretty darned well. Sometimes you do a little worse, but never a lot worse. And when you do better, you do a LOT better. So, overall, it’s worth it.

In order to keep track of the signal, I wrote a little python program to calculate whether we are in buy mode or sell mode. It uses the excellent ystockquote module written by Corey Goldberg.

As mentioned yesterday, I’m teaching myself clojure. I started by trying to install it.

vinod@ike$ aptitude install clojure

Ubuntu has packaged version 1.0.0 of clojure. I always default to the OS-installed version of programs, just for ease of maintenance. The current stable version of clojure is 1.1 and it appears that 1.2 is in beta. I have no idea what has been changed in 1.1 or 1.2, but I’m going to try to get along using 1.0.0 and update only if I need to for a specific reason.

I then read through the tutorial for non-lisp programmers, which succinctly describes the basics of the language.¹ Everything in lisp is either an atom or a list. Atoms include numbers, booleans, strings, symbols, keywords and the nil value. Lists (delimited by parentheses ()) are the basic data structure, but include representations such as vectors (delimited by square brackets []) and maps (delimited by curly brackets {}). Clojure programs are themselves simply lists, which leads to the power of lisp-like languages because code and data are interchangeable.

You use def to create variables and defn to create functions. The language includes loops and conditional statements, just like any other useful language. Only false and nil are false in clojure; zero (0), and the empty string ("") are true, unlike a lot of languages.

The interesting part is the integration with Java. To instantiate a java object, simply call new:

user=> (new java.util.Date)
#<Date Sun Jul 18 16:20:54 EDT 2010>

To call object methods or get instance/class variables, use the dot “.” method.

user=> (. (new java.util.Date) (toString))
"Sun Jul 18 16:24:09 EDT 2010"

user=> (. Integer MAX_VALUE)
2147483647

The article contains this interesting quote:

Sequences are in a sense, the core of idiomatic Clojure programming. Understand sequences and the forms that work with them, and you will have cleared one of the biggest hurdles in writing significant Clojure programs.

So, add that to my to-do list. Where to go next? A StackOverflow thread has pointed to me to a few options. I’ll probably read one of these next:

• http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Learning_Clojure
• http://github.com/relevance/labrepl
• http://java.ociweb.com/mark/clojure/article.html

Steve Yegge is one of my favorite bloggers. I read “You Should Write Blogs” a long time ago and it is one of the main reasons that I still try to keep this blog going at all. He recently took a blogging hiatus and in his return post, he left a little hint that he was interested in a programming language called clojure.

My programming skills have been rusting away (Darn those patients, always getting sick and stuff!), so I’ve been looking for a little inspiration. I’m hoping that clojure is it. I’ve always wanted to learn lisp. I know a little elisp and scheme, but I’ve never gotten comfortable with them. Clojure compiles code that runs on a JVM (java virtual machine). This gives you a lot of the “power” of java, namely the extensive libraries and the widespread platforms on which it will run. But instead of having to write java, you get to write in a dynamic, lisp-like language. At least that’s how I understand it.

Specifically, I hope that I’ll eventually be able to create applications that run on android phones, which is a java environment. Smartphones are clearly going to be a huge part of the future, if not the way of the future. I don’t see myself ever buying an iPhone and Mala already has a Droid Eris that I’d be able to play with if I needed. (Didn’t tell you that, did I Mala?) So… Android it is.

Starting today, I’m going to start reading about clojure and taking notes (and maybe even posting them!). I’ve never been very good about taking notes, ever in my life. But, I clearly need to learn.

incron seems to be a pretty neat tool. It’s cron-for-file-activities. Cron is a common unix tool that allows you to run any command at a specified time. It’s immensely useful for running anything that you want to occur on a regular basis: backups, daily reminder emails, downloading podcasts, etc. If you’ve used unix to any significant extent, you’ve used cron.

incron takes that cron metaphor and applies it to file activity. You specify which files you want to watch, and then you specify which activities you are interested in. If incron notices any of those activities occurring on your files, it launches the command that you specified. Activities could include creating a new file, modifying a file, accessing a file, among multiple other possibilities. incron takes advantage of the inotify system built into recent linux kernels, which supposedly is more efficient than previous ways of doing this same thing.

incron seemed to be just what I wanted. I wanted to watch a specific directory and launch a tool to rebuild my website if any of those files changed. The problem is that incron doesn’t work recursively on directories. You have to specify each directory, the activities on that directory, and the command to launch. If you create new directories, you have to tell incron about them specifically. This ruins the benefit of the tool for me. It seems the developer has been planning to implement recursive watching for the past 4 years ago, but hasn’t done it yet. If it hasn’t happened in 4 years, it’s probably not going to happen soon.

But, I found a perfectly usable way to get what I want. inotify-tools includes a program called inotifywait. It takes a file or directory name and listens for specific activities that you are interested in. It basically waits until it sees one of those activities and then returns control back to you. So, you can something like (pseudocode):

while (inotifywait /home/vinod/web/kurup.org):
    # triggered
    rebuild my server

inotifywait waits for my activities. If it finds one, it returns TRUE and my server gets rebuilt, and then the while loop restarts. Best of all, inotifywait can work recursively on a directory. Which brings me to my watch-rebuild.sh script which watches my web source files for changes, and rebuilds the web generated files on demand. It also pops up a little GNOME notification using notify-send:

#!/bin/bash
    
BLOGOFILE='/usr/local/bin/blogofile'
BLOGDIR='/home/vinod/web/kurup.org'
    
# requires libnotify-bin for notify-osd notification
# requires inotify-tools
while LINE=$(inotifywait -rq --timefmt '%F %R' --format '%T %e %f' \
      -e close_write -e move -e delete "$BLOGDIR");
do
        echo -n "Rebuilding $LINE ..."
        $BLOGOFILE -s $BLOGDIR build
        echo "done"
        notify-send -u low "Rebuild Done" "Watching again"
done

-r = recursive
-q = be quiet
--timefmt & --format = what we want to display on the command line
-e = each of the individual events that we are interested in

Kavi’s bedroom - 8PM

DADDY and KAVI are lying next to each other in KAVI’s bed doing their bedtime ritual. They have finished singing a song and are recapping the day.

DADDY: Did you play with playdoh today?

KAVI: No.

DADDY: Are you sure? Did you play with playdoh this morning before going to the Puffin room?

(KAVI thinks)

KAVI: Yes. I did. Why did I play with playdoh?

DADDY: Because you wanted to. You asked me if you could play with it.

KAVI: Why did I want to play with the playdoh?

DADDY: I don’t know.

KAVI: Why you don’t know?

DADDY: Because. I can’t answer that question.

KAVI: Why you can’t answer that question?

DADDY: It’s a question of your motivation, KAVI. I can speculate about why you wanted to play with the playdoh, but I can’t tell you why you wanted to.

(pause)

KAVI: Why?

DADDY: I can tell you what I want, but I can’t tell you what you want.

KAVI: What do you want DADDY?

(DADDY takes a deep breath)

DADDY: A lot of things. I want you to grow up to be a strong, intelligent, loving, happy boy. I want Anika to grow up to be a strong, intelligent, loving, happy girl. I want Mommy to be able to do what she wants in life. I want all of us to travel, spend time with family, and enjoy the world. That’s what I want.

KAVI: oh.

DADDY: What do you want?

KAVI: Playdoh.

This is going to be a great year. I was working on New Year’s Eve. My shift was supposed to end at midnight, which meant that I would normally be home around 12:30 AM, but my colleague let me out early since the ER was unusually light. I got home at 11:55 PM, so I was able to kiss my beautiful wife as the new year began. If that’s not an auspicious start to a year, I don’t know what one would be.

I am so lucky. I have a great job, which is getting better all the time. I work hard, but I get some pretty good karmic rewards. It’s not perfect and maybe someday I’ll rant about the pitfalls of being a hospitalist, but it’s certainly better than my life was as a primary care doctor.

I live in a beautiful house where I feel comfortable and “at home”. I have a loving extended family who, thankfully, are all pretty happy and healthy.

Most importantly, I have an amazing wife and 2 darling children who can lift my heart into the heavens just by looking at me a certain way. They can also make me feel completely unfit to be a father sometimes, but I guess that’s part of being a father. I have so much to teach them and they have so much to teach me.

This is starting to feel like a “Thanksgiving” post rather than a “New Year’s” post. The bottom line is that I have a great feeling that this is going to be a great year for me and my family.

When Mala and I started looking for homes, we listed on a yellow notepad all the things that were important to us. Like most little notes in my life, it got lost. I found it a few days after we moved into our home and was pleasantly surprised that we had gotten everything on our list, except a lake view. Not bad, and there’s a lake about a half mile from our door. One of the things on that list that we “kinda” got was “running trails nearby”. I say “kinda” because there is a trail which is just behind the back of our property, but I wouldn’t call it a running trail. It is a paved trail which runs behind the houses in our neighborhood and extends about 1 mile in total length. It is mostly through woods or along the lake, so it’s nice, but it’s not a running trail. A running trail is not paved. More importantly, a running trail goes for miles and miles, so that you can feel like you are away from (sub)urban life.

So this was one of those things on our “list” that I would say we checked off, but, not really, you know?

I went for a run recently and I can now say with certainty that this is my dream house. That paved running trail which I had been so ambivalent about eventually ends at a main road. And that’s where I thought it ended. On Thursday, I crossed the road and found a little mowed path which takes you to the local high school. And then you take a right and WOW! A huge forest with a 10 foot wide rock and dirt trail opens up in front of you. I started down this trail, expecting it to end at someone’s private property, but it kept going and going and going. It ran next to a bubbling stream with water clear enough to see the river’s bottom. There were countless little paths snaking away from the main one. I just kept running and it just got more and more beautiful. I wish I had brought my camera. It felt like a religious experience. I couldn’t believe that this beautiful, seemingly endless trail

• the type of trail that I would have driven miles to get to in the past - was in my backyard. I ended up running 11 miles, which is longer than I have run since moving to North Carolina. I can’t wait to run there again. This is just another example of how I am the luckiest man in the world. I always wanted to live in a house near trails like this, but didn’t think it was possible, so I settled for a little “running trail”. Just my luck, it turns out to be the trail of my dreams :-)

A friend asked for some investing advice a few years ago. Here was my response.

I have a feeling this is going to be long… :-)

First thing - I don’t know your exact financial situation, but I know you’re in great shape for the long run. Anyone thinking this seriously about their finances this early in life will do fine. Also, since I don’t know much about your exact situation, this may be a little ‘condescending’. I’m sure you know I don’t mean it that way. Just take what you need from it and leave the rest. Also feel free to ask questions about anything at any time. I love finances and it would be my pleasure to help if there’s any way that I can. I’ve read A LOT of books and stuff, so it would be nice to be of use to others.

The ABSOLUTE most important thing is to get out of debt. Nothing kills your financial future more than debt. No matter how good of an investor you are, you won’t get anywhere if you don’t take control of debt. Make that your main focus. Until you are completely debt-free (except for a mortgage), I wouldn’t put too much time into investing. Have you heard of Dave Ramsey? He has an excellent talk-radio show about getting out of debt. It’s a bit basic sometimes, and like all talk-radio hosts, he’s “over-the-top”, but he provides really useful information. The most valuable thing about it is the repetition. Listeners call in with their financial situation and he takes each one of them through the same process. He calls them the Baby Steps, and they’re really just common sense, but listening to him walk listeners through them over and over makes it stick in your head. He also advocates developing a laser-like focus. Don’t try to do a hundred things at once. Focus on one thing at a time, whether it’s paying off one credit card, or building up an emergency fund, or whatever. Once that one thing is done, then move to the next item. That simplifies life and is a better use of your energy than trying to fix everything with little bits of your attention here and little bits over there.

A book that everyone should read is The Millionaire Next Door, which discusses the habits that financially successful people share. It also focuses on getting out of debt and living more simply. The advice seems pretty sound even though the methodology of the book isn’t. Taking a bunch of millionaires and finding out common features among them is not good science.

All that said, thinking about investing at any time is a useful endeavor. Just as long as you maintain your focus on getting out of debt.

The only people who should be investing in individual stocks are those who enjoy it. If you don’t relish reading financial statements and analyzing stock valuations, then you shouldn’t be doing it. Life is too short. Do stuff you enjoy and make your financial plan as simple as possible. Your overall return will still be in the top 10-20% of all investors.

The most important part of investing is following a strict plan. And that plan should be focused on asset allocation. What does that mean? There are various classes of assets that you can invest in. The most common ones are stocks, bonds, and real estate. Within each class, there are subclasses, like small stocks, value stocks, international stocks, etc. It’s almost impossible to know which class will do well over the short term, even though the talking heads on CNBC will tell you they think they know. Studies show that it’s a toss up. So, the smartest thing to do is to look at the long term return of each asset class (past 20-50 years), decide what percent of your portfolio you want to place in each class, and then STICK WITH IT THROUGH THICK AND THIN. That is capitalized because that is the most important part. If you constantly adjust your percentages because you “think” large tech stocks are going to start doing well, then you will kill this approach. Everyone thought tech stocks were going to do well in 1999. 2000 killed them. My favorite book describing this strategy and the rationale behind it is A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel.

Once you decide what your asset classes should be and what percentages you want to invest in each (I can help you with suggestions), then you find a LOW COST index fund (or ETF) that tracks that asset class and buy the appropriate amount. Then just leave it alone until next year. Look at the results and if one or more asset classes has gotten out of whack with your desired percentages, then rebalance. Sell a little of the one which has gotten too big and buy a little of the one that has gotten too small.

This way, you are automatically selling an asset class AFTER it has risen and buying an asset class when it has been beaten down. You’re buying low and selling high.

For someone who wanted the simplest possible investment plan, I would recommend putting 75% of their portfolio into a broad stock fund (VFINX or VTSMX) and 25% into a simple low-cost bond fund (VBMFX). Then just rebalance every year. But you can also make this more complex by splitting the stock portion into domestic and international, then small and large companies, etc. It can be as complex as you want; just be sure to keep it consistent from year to year. That is the key which will allow you to buy assets when they are at their low point and sell them when they are high.

Now, if you want to invest in individual stocks, I’d recommend keeping it to a small portion of your overall portfolio (< 10%). Figuring out how to value stocks is an art that takes a lifetime. The one book that I’d recommend is The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham. It was written decades ago, but it gives the groundwork necessary to understand how to invest in stocks.

In order to really successfully invest in individual stocks, you need to be able to identify companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage. This is something that I have a lot of trouble with and haven’t really pursued enough. This is what Warren Buffett does. If you really want to understand this process, read everything on this page.

This email is getting a bit long. So let me know if what I scribbled is understandable and if you have any questions. There’s more trivia locked up in this brain of mine, if you want more :-)

Must read books:

• Millionaire next door
• A Random Walk Down Wallstreet
• Intelligent Investor

Good intro web site:

• Motley Fool

Radio show (can download podcasts to listen whenever you want):

• Dave Ramsey show

I love watching Kavi’s expressions. We took the kids to the Museum of Life and Science for a birthday party today. He’s been there plenty of times, mostly with Mala. I’ve been there a few times with him. It’s one of his (and I guess every kid’s) favorite places. Each time we go, it’s a vastly different experience. Everything seems new to him. His eyes light up with wonder and amazement at the exhibits.

We were late for the party, so Mala took Anika ahead of us while Kavi dawdled in the front exhibits. Ahead of us was a large skeleton of a dinosaur’s head. I know that he has seen this before, but, it was as if he’d noticed it for the first time today. And it was scary. Not too scary, mind you. He wasn’t crying or anything. He just was very cautious about getting too close to it. But, there was no way to avoid it, since the party room (with the cake!) was just past the dinosaur. He held my hand tightly and asked what it was. I told him and he repeated it, “Dinosaur?”. His eyes were wide open, but focused on the T-Rex’s head. His right hand clenched my left and when I tried to walk past it, he pulled me back. Still no crying or complaining, just … concern. So I took my time and talked to him about the dinosaur and the other exhibits nearby. Eventually, he mustered up the courage to walk around the back of the dinosaur and towards the party room. Later, after the cake and festivities, we made our way back to the other exhibits. This time, he pointed out the dinosaur, still in a concerned voice, but made no effort to shy away or slow down. Now, he noticed other things that he had missed before – cool astronauts uniforms and a glass elevator slowly ascending. When he saw each of these things, his face turned into the embodiment of wonder. Eyes wide open, jaw slightly ajar. I love seeing him experience life like this, so fully.

I write this because I know that I’m otherwise going to forget them. I had the distinct feeling this afternoon, while watching him, that he was growing up in front of my eyes. That these expressions of wonderment would soon be replaced by the apathy of young adulthood. I know, I know… he’s only 2, but everyone keeps telling me that he will be grown and with kids of his own before I know it! I hope not and if so, I hope not too soon. I want to make sure that I remember these moments, simply for their own sake.

I’ve been a runner for a long time. I started running in junior high school, so I could be on the track team. I’ve had a few long stretches where I didn’t run, but for most of the past 25 years, I’ve been a runner.

It wasn’t until the 2005 New York Marathon though, that I really felt like a runner. I had already run 2 marathons, but I had walked a lot in both of them. I ran the entire NYC Marathon from beginning to end. That, to me, was a huge deal. Before 2004, I don’t think I would ever have believed that I could do that. I don’t necessarily think that using walk breaks makes you any less of a runner. But, for me, using walk breaks was a crutch. I’d gotten to the point that running 3, 4 or even 5 miles was easy. I dreaded anything longer than that. If I was planning a 9 mile run, I would start doing math in my head around mile 3. “OK, I’ve done 3 miles, now I just need to do that again… and then again…” And that’s where I would defeat myself. I mean, I was already tired at mile 3! How was I going to do that same distance twice more?

Sometime around 2004, that changed. I was working at Metropolitan Hospital, which is on 96th street and 1st avenue in NYC. I had decided to run the NYC Marathon in 2005, but I wasn’t training enough. After the subway ride home from work, I would be drained, and going out for a run at 6 or 7 PM was just too much to even think about. I’m so glad that I had made the decision to run the marathon. I hadn’t even signed up - it was way too early - but that decision in my brain was firm. I knew that I had to find a way to train. Running in the morning was an option, but if you know me, then you know that it wasn’t. :-) Ironically, I’m now up before 5AM every day these days because of my 2 precious little ones. But, back in those bachelor days, mornings didn’t exist.

I decided to make running part of my daily commute. I would take the subway to work and then run home after work. I was living on 22nd St and 3rd Avenue, so it was a 5 mile run along the East River. Living in NYC was so convenient in that way. I never had to worry about leaving a car at work or figuring out what to do if I couldn’t run all the way home. The subway was always there. I started out by running every couple days, then every other day, and then, as many days as I could. It was great for training and for my peace of mind. There’s no better way to release the stress of a workday than a long, easy run. I got much faster during the summer of 2004, and in September, I ran the Staten Island Half Marathon in 1:41:56, which is much faster than I ever dreamed was possible at that time.

But getting faster is not the point of this article. Running longer is.

The other thing that happened that summer was that I met and fell in love with Mala. By the next spring, we had decided to move in together, and we were both living in her tiny little apartment in the Bronx. At first, this curbed my running a bit. But, eventually, I came to the same conclusions that I had made the year before. I had to run and the only feasible way was after work. But, the commute was now 8 miles instead of 5. And instead of a leisurely jog along the East River, I now had a somewhat exhausting urban trek through some shady neighborhoods. I never had any real problems, but I always felt a little fear during parts of my run. Every once in a while a teenager would see me running and shout something at me, or run along with me for a few steps. But, it always seemed playful, so I never felt too threatened. Running with a backpack through the South Bronx probably made me the craziest thing in the neighborhood, so I didn’t need to worry :-) Anyway, the point is that my run was now longer and subway stops were fewer and further between. In addition, I had all that fear, so I felt that I needed to conserve energy in case, you know… I needed to sprint!

So, I ended up running a lot slower. Even though I was pretty sure I could make it 8 miles, I started a lot slower and didn’t start speeding up until I was within a mile or two of home. And I don’t mean just a little slower. I would run so slow that I felt people were thinking, “Why doesn’t he just walk?”. That was tough for me. As much as I hate to admit it, I do think about what other people think, and the last thing I want anyone to think is that I’m a slow runner. But, I purposefully shed those superficial inhibitions in the name of survival. I would slow WAY down. This eventually served two purposes. The most important immediate purpose was that it allowed to me to get home safely each night. The more lasting purpose was that it gave me the confidence that I can always build up energy by slowing down. No matter how tired I was, if I slowed down enough, I would build up energy again. I know it makes sense, but I didn’t believe it until I tried it. And I guess I thought I had tried it before, but the problem was my ego. I had never let myself really slow enough to the point that it was valuable. Slowing down was the best thing I ever did as a runner.

So, that’s how I was able to run the NYC marathon without stopping in 2005. Now, even when I haven’t been training regularly, I know that I can run 10+ miles on any given day. Just by slowing down. They won’t be the fastest 10 miles I’ve run, but it’s such a great feeling to know that I can do it. It gives me freedom in my runs, too. I know I can take any hill, just by slowing down. I can speed up at any point in my run, just by slowing down before and afterwards.

So, if you’ve gotten to the point that you can run 3 miles comfortably, but couldn’t dream of running 10 or 20, slow way down. So slow that you feel like a fraud. See if that doesn’t let you run longer. And if that fails, try running in the Bronx :-)