OK, it’s well past the end of 2004 and I’ve finally calculated how my investments have done for the year. I’ve also analyzed my overall investment results since I started investing in 1996.

These are calculated using the XIRR function in OpenOffice. The XIRR function takes a series of cash flows in or out of an account and returns the internal rate of return for that account. It’s the best way to compare portfolio returns when investments or withdrawals are made on an irregular basis.

The VFINX column shows how I would have done if I had simply invested all my money into VFINX, a low-cost mutual fund which tracks the S&P 500. This number will not match numbers you see posted for VFINX for a given year because it depends on the timing of my* investments. Note that I include the cost of commissions in my performance, but not in VFINX’s.

A little background. The years 1996-1998 reflect my 403-b investments during residency - half in Fidelity Growth Company and half in Fidelity Contrafund. In 1998, I started to buy individual stocks, but without any underlying strategy. Until 2002, I used a strategy called Mechanical Investing, whereby you screen stocks for certain criteria and buy them without further research. Unfortunately, I followed largely momentum based strategies and in 2002, the momentum arrow was pointing decidedly downwards. From 2002-2004, I invested in well-diversified index funds based on the advice in Burton Malkiel’s, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I still think this a safe, reasonable strategy for just about everyone.

So why did I change again? In 2004 I read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor and realized that most of my previous individual stock investing had been decidedly un-Intelligent. I find stock research and investing fun, and I think there are inefficiences in the market, even if it may be mostly efficient, or efficient in the long run. I believe that an individual investor can find these inefficiencies, and over time can significantly outperform the market. So, while I have most of my money parked in index funds, I also have a significant minority invested in individual stocks that fit a value-investing discipline. Let’s see how I do over the next 5-10 years. If I’m still enjoying it and beating the market by 2-3% (which so far, I haven’t!), then I’ll keep doing it. If not, I’ll plead surrender to Malkiel et al and dump my money into index funds. Next report 2006…

Congratulations to my cousin Deepu for getting published in the American Journal of Cardiology.

He found a strong association between anemia and diastolic dysfunction in patients with coronary disease. Diastolic dysfunction is a condition in which a patient has clinical signs of heart failure, but a normal left ventricular systolic function. So, for some reason, the heart is pumping vigorously, but fluid is still backing up (into the legs or into the lungs). Why does this happen? It’s thought to be related to hypertension. High blood pressure over a long period of time takes a toll on our heart. The heart, in response, bulks up - a condition called left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Because of the bulk, our heart is now somewhat stiffer. It still pumps vigorously, but when it’s time to fill up with blood, it’s no longer so compliant. Not as much blood rushes in, and the blood that doesn’t get in gets pushed back - into the lungs and legs.

Interestingly, Deepu’s study found an association between anemia and diastolic dysfunction (Odds Ratio of 6.6 for severe anemia), but not between anemia and LVH (Odds Ration of 1.6 for severe anemia). I would’ve expected those to go together.

His study was aimed at looking for the presence or absence of an association, so it can’t say which one causes the other one, or if they are both caused by some other third condition. Now, it’s up to further studies to figure out the details of the association.

Congrats, Deepu!

It’s official. I got an email the other day:

Congratulations Vinod Kurup! You are eligible for guaranteed entry to the ING New York City Marathon 2005. Simply follow the instructions below and register between January 31 and May 1, 2005, in order to enter the marathon without applying for the lottery. The marathon will take place on Sunday, November 6, 2005.

So, I registered today and am now committed to running the New York Marathon in under 4 hours. My number is #17166. Real training begins around June or so. Keep posted for updates :-)

The Daily News has found 100 restaurants under $10 (not including tip or drinks) in NYC. I’ve been to 9 of them - El Paso Taqueria, Carl’s (aweome cheesesteaks!), Blue 9, The Burger Joint, Sassy’s Sliders, Crif Dogs, Papaya King (of course), Mandler’s and Pomme Frites.

Looks like we have some eating to do!

Has anyone tried any of the Internet phone services? Skype looks very interesting. Nice interface, lots of platforms, high praise from people I trust, and most importantly, it’s FREE! Well, as long as the person you’re calling also has Skype. If you want to call a real phone, you buy credits (which seem pretty cheap). Lemme know if any of you try it out…

Interesting article about SUV safety. Here’s a quote:

Most of us think that S.U.V.s are much safer than sports cars. If you asked the young parents of America whether they would rather strap their infant child in the back seat of the TrailBlazer or the passenger seat of the Boxster, they would choose the TrailBlazer. We feel that way because in the TrailBlazer our chances of surviving a collision with a hypothetical tractor-trailer in the other lane are greater than they are in the Porsche. What we forget, though, is that in the TrailBlazer you’re also much more likely to hit the tractor-trailer because you can’t get out of the way in time. In the parlance of the automobile world, the TrailBlazer is better at “passive safety.” The Boxster is better when it comes to “active safety,” which is every bit as important.

We think SUVs are safer because they’re bigger. But, they’re actually less nimble and take longer to stop than smaller cars. More dangerously, they give the illusion of safety, thus making the driver less careful or more aggressive. Perception and rationalization are powerful things. So, I’ll stick to my plan of driving small cheap cars… uh… that is, when I get one.

Found on kottke.org

Fred Lebow Classic

I’ve run about 10 miles in the past 2 months, so I wasn’t expecting anything great on Sunday. My conservative goal was 50 minutes. I didn’t set any other goals.

I got to the start a little late and didn’t have time to find the baggage area, so I strapped on my backpack and ran with it. This made it feel even more like a training run, rather than a race.

We started on the big downhill in Central Park. Most of the NYRR races start near there, which means you can never really take advantage of the downhill because there’s too much traffic at the start.

I got to the first mile marker at 11 minutes. I guess that it was really about 9:30, estimating my time to the start line at about 1:30 or so). I hit mile 2 at 20 minutes and mile 3 at 29. I had a few bursts of energy, but they faded quickly. On the whole, I just felt average. Around mile 3.5, I had a spot where I felt exhausted, almost wanted to shut it down. Every race has one of these moments. I tried to really be aware of it on Sunday, knowing that the feeling during the marathon will be 100 times stronger. Anyway, I fought through it and picked it up a bit to the finish. No sprint or anything - didn’t want to hurt myself on the first race of the year :-)

Word to the wise. MSIE5 (Mac) doesn’t like:

 <script type="blah" src="blah" /> 

It only likes:

 <script type="blah" src="blah></script>

It’s quite stubborn. If you try the first example, it will refuse to show any of your page.

I ran 2 more half-marathons in the past couple weeks. I ran Greta’s Great Gallop on October 3rd in Central Park and then ran the Staten Island Half Marathon today.

I’m pretty happy about these 2 races. The weather was perfect and I was able to avoid hitting the wall. I improved my half-marathon time about 30 minutes since May. I’m just guessing here, but I probably won’t be able to keep this up. The other good news is that this was my ninth NYRR race of the calendar year, so I automatically qualify for next year’s NY Marathon (2005).

And I’m so happy!

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